The Louisa County Public Schools (LCPS) school board discussed increasing enrollment, future projections and capacities of existing facilities, as well as the potential site of a new elementary school — the fifth in the county — at its May 5 meeting.

Two recent additions to LCPS have helped address current capacity issues. A nearly $25 million 36-classroom addition to Louisa County Middle School (LCMS) provides room for 500 more students and was unveiled earlier this year in January, increasing their building capacity from 1,065 to 1,565. The Career and Technical Education (CTE) Center, a $39 million project currently under construction in front of the high school that will offer career-focused programs including welding, nursing, and cosmetology, is expected to open in August 2027. Current capacity at Louisa County High School (LCHS) is 2,072; with the addition of the CTE center, an additional 200 seats will be added for a total capacity of 2,272 students.

David Childress, the Chief Technology Officer with LCPS, explained to the school board that to be prepared for the future, they contracted with an outside company to work through projected increases in the number of students.

Tracy Healy is the Owner and President of FutureThink, an organization that focuses primarily on “enrollment projections and demographic studies for K-12 school districts across the country,” according to Healy’s LinkedIn page.

Before diving into a potential location of a new school, Healy explained the historical enrollment, birth data, and housing data.

Over the last 10 years, there has been an increase of 605 students (13%) across all grade levels. The 2016-2017 school year had 4,813 students; the 2025-2026 school year had 5,418.

The growth occurred at all levels. Grades pre-k to 5 had an increase of 308 students, grades 6 to 8 had an increase of 132 students, and grades 9 to 12 had an increase of 150 students.

The live birth count in Louisa County in 2009 was 399. In 2023, the live birth count was 419. Healy noted that overall in the Commonwealth of Virginia, there is a decline in the total number of births.

“Louisa County is kind of bucking that trend,” Healy said, also noting a “significant” amount of new housing development in the area.

Enrollment projections, specifically in the 2030-2031 school year, showed a moderate increase of 654 students for a grand total of 6,072 students, a 12% increase. Grades pre-k to 5 show an increase of 335 students, grades 6 to 8 an increase of 161 students, and grades 9 to 12 an increase of 158 students.

At the elementary school level, Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (TJES) is at 100% utilization, with 703 students in the current school year and a building capacity of 700. Trevilians Elementary School (TES) is at 99% utilization, with 566 students in the current school year and a building capacity of 570. Jouett Elementary School (JES) has an 88% utilization, while Moss-Nuckols Elementary School (MNES) has 95% utilization.

With a moderate projected enrollment in the 2030-31 school year, each elementary school goes over capacity. TES has a 114% utilization, TES has a 112% utilization, MNES has a 106% utilization, and JES has a 101% utilization, for a total of 2,959 students with a capacity of 2,745 across the four schools.

“We’re really pushing the need for a new elementary school to accommodate our current population as well as the future population,” Healy said.

Looking at the current secondary school capacity vs. current enrollment, LCMS has 77% utilization and LCHS has 88% utilization for the current school year. The middle school has a capacity of 1,565 students with 1,024 students in the current school year and the high school has a capacity of 1,750 with 1,546 students.

With the moderate projected enrollment in the 2030-31 school year, the middle school will have 87% utilization with 1,365 students, and the high school will have 82% utilization with 1,704 students. Healy said the county is in “good shape” as far as the middle and high school.

Healy outlined the new school location criteria, which includes the location of existing schools, balancing capacity between schools of 3-5%, keeping neighborhoods together, creating socio-economic balance, having room for growth based on new housing, minimizing travel time on buses, and knowing where infrastructure like water, sewer, and electricity currently exists. She noted that MNES and TJES, both more so in the central region of the county, have the most number of new housing developments as well as remaining units by region with current attendance boundaries.

Her recommendation was that the new school should be located in a central part of the county, as it would allow a pool of students from existing schools to help with enrollment numbers, as well as allow room for future growth. She identified parcel #42 95 which is adjacent to the middle school location.

According to the GIS mapping system available on the county website, the property address is 1015 Davis Highway. The property is 188.4 acres and is owned by the Louisa County School Board.

She said they landed on this parcel for a variety of reasons, including its central location, it already being owned by the county which would avoid a land purchase, and infrastructure like water, sewer, and electricity available to save on costs.

LCPS Superintendent Doug Straley noted that as a result of the fifth elementary school, students may have to move schools, not necessarily from their school to the new school, but potentially from their current school to a different existing one. It is unclear when the school board will officially select a site for the fifth school.

“There could be several different moves here as we do this in the next few years,” Straley said.